Prior projections that an earlier-than-normal peak shipping season would lead to a decline in shipments by the fall appear to be premature.
According to data from the monthly Global Port Tracker from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, September is expected to be the busiest month for inbound cargo volumes at U.S. ports this year.
Ports covered by the Global Port Tracker handled 2.3 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in July, down 3.9 percent from a year ago but still the highest import figure of 2026. And although the gateways have not yet published August numbers, the report projected that 2.29 million TEUs of inbound cargo volume went into the ports, down 1.3 percent year over year.
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But September is now forecast to bring in 2.31 million TEUs, slightly surpassing July’s numbers and August projections due cargo that was delayed from earlier months because of recent weather in China and potential drought conditions at the Panama Canal.
September’s expected inbound cargo volumes represent a 9.6 percent increase over totals from a year ago.
Just two months ago, NRF and Hackett had a much different projection for September. At the time, the Global Port Tracker forecast that U.S. ports would endure a 5.7 percent annual decline in inbound cargo volume to 1.99 million TEUs.
“We thought the peak season would be mostly behind us by now, but that’s not the case,” said Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy at the NRF, who acknowledged the delays related to the Chinese port congestion and the rerouting away from Panama. “But consumers keep buying despite tariffs, inflation and high fuel prices, and retailers keep bringing in merchandise to meet demand.”
Last month, Port of Los Angeles executive director Gene Seroka said the uncertainty at the Panama Canal could end up diverting as much as 5 percent of additional volumes to the L.A. port.
Brian Dodge, president and CEO of the Retail Industry Leaders Association (RILA), observed in a media briefing that the late spring and early summer remained the peak for retailer imports, suggesting that a large volume of holiday goods are already in the U.S.
But like Gold, he recognized U.S. consumer resilience as a major factor in the continued fall push.
“Depending on the type of retailer and the products that they sell, they will be bringing in that product over the course of the next several months, and they want to make sure that they have inventories to meet demand and replenish adequately,” said Dodge. “A good chunk of it is already here, but we’ll see that continue to flow in in the next couple of months.”
Seroka reiterated in the Wednesday briefing that the gateway expects to exceed 900,000 TEUs total in September across imports and exports. At minimum, this would amount to a 1.9 percent increase from the prior year’s 883,053 TEUs handled during the month.
However, Seroka said peak season imports traditionally subside at the port by the second week of November, whereas the lion’s share is expected to be at the port by the end of September this year.
On Tuesday, the L.A. port unveiled that it processed 955,907 TEUs in August. Albeit what was a slight 0.3 percent year-over-year decline in container throughput, the San Pedro Bay gateway capped off the port’s busiest three-month stretch in its history. More than 2.9 million TEUs were moved across the port’s docks throughout June, July and August.
“Imports have remained buoyant over the past three months despite several hurdles,” Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said, referring to new tariff implementations along with inflation and rising fuel prices related to the war in Iran. “Retail sales remain strong and cargo is moving relatively smoothly, although there are reports of vessel delays and increased times required for cargo to move through the supply chain.”
For the remainder of the year, the Global Port Tracker does not forecast too much deviation from the end of 2025.
Inbound cargo volume is expected to reach 2.11 million TEUs in October, up 1.7 percent year over year. November’s container throughput is forecast to contract 0.9 percent from the year-ago month to 2 million TEUs. December’s projections call for 2.03 million TEUs, up 1.1 percent over last year.
Those numbers would bring 2026 to a total of 25.7 million TEUs, up 1 percent from last year’s 25.4 million inbound containers.
NRF and Hackett’s latest forecasts now bleeds into next year. To kick off 2027, January is forecast at 2.09 million TEUs, down 1 percent year over year.
